The Low Hire, Low Fire Economy

The BLS data is in for 2025, and it’s a real page-turner. We’re seeing a minuscule 15,000 jobs created per month in 2025. To put that in perspective, the last time growth was this anemic was 2020. You remember 2020—the year we all stayed home and learned that sourdough starter is a needy roommate.

Usually, these numbers mean we’re neck-deep in a recession. But we are NOT in a recession right now. So, how do we explain this economic purgatory? 

The Math of the Empty Field

We believe this can be explained by the extreme immigration crackdown taking place by the administration. The states seeing the weakest job growth are the ones where the migrant loss is the greatest, and the industries that are hurting the most are agriculture, hospitality, manufacturing and construction. These industries rely on migrant workers for growth. It turns out that when you aggressively crack down on immigration, the industries that actually build and feed the country tend to stall.

Most economists predicted this slowdown, but I think it would surprise most of the America public who thought migrant workers are taking away jobs from people already here. The jobs are still there; there’s just nobody in the kitchen to cook the pasta or on the site to frame the house. 

The Great Rollback

One person definitely not surprised by these results is the President of the United States, this current economic landscape is by his own design, the President wants all these jobs going to legal workers, he wants more American's in farm fields, working in the kitchens and building houses; the problem is America is largely a services economy now, workers are looking for higher-end technology jobs. But-surprise, surprise- those jobs are hard to come by now. The post 1990 economy that the President is seeking will take time to rollback, and that’s if it’s even possible. POTUS is essentially trying to "Ctrl+Z" the last 30 years of the American service economy. 

Sink or Swim

We are now in a "Low Hire, Low Fire" loop. Companies are clutching their best workers like heirlooms and refusing to open the door for anyone new.

• The Result: It’s officially the hardest time to find a job in decades.

• The Reality: There are more people searching for a job than there are jobs available.

As Winston Churchill said, "The further back we can see, the further forward we can predict." The problem? History isn't repeating itself right now; it’s improvising. Between AI productivity, aggressive tariffs, the rise of the Gold trade, and a massive data center build-out, we are in uncharted waters.

If you’re looking for a job right now, keep your life jacket on. It’s a "sink or swim" world, and the water is freezing.

#Economy2026 #JobMarket #LaborTrends #Macroeconomics #LowHireLowFire